Since 2003, there have been no surprise champion at Wimbledon. As is the case almost everywhere else the Big Four have completely dominated. In terms of titles, unlike every other slam, every Big Four member has at-least once, it stands at Federer-7, Nadal-2, Djokovic-2, Murray-1.
However, with Nadal looking vulnerable, Federer aging, Murray struggling against Djokovic and the World No.1 Djokovic struggling in GS finals, this year looks like the best chance for an upset at Wimbledon yet.
Over the past decade only a precious few have been able to challenge, and sometimes overcome the Big Four on the biggest stages of the sport. The list of active players, who have managed to do so and will have chances in the future, includes, but is not limited to,
1) Stan Wawrinka
2) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
3) Tomas Berdych
4) Ernests Gulbis
5) David Ferrer
6) Kei Nishikori
7) Milos Raonic
All of the above mentioned players have caused serious trouble in the past.
Crucially, Tsonga & Gulbis are erratic and Ferrer is mentally fragile, deep in GS tournaments.
Considering current from, grass-court prowess(playing style) and their performance in the latter stages of tournaments, the list can be further filtered with Wimbledon in mind, it all boils down to four players – Wawrinka, Berdych, Nishikori & Raonic.
Wawrinka is a proven two-time grand-slam champion and caused serious problems to Roger(?) in last year’s Wimbledon QF. On his day, Wawrinka can blow away anyone off the court. That being said, grass is Wawrinka’s worst surface because of his average footwork on this surface.
Raonic with his huge serves and big forehand is always well equipped to cause an upset at Wimbledon, but he is fresh from an injury break and is short of match practice.
Berdych reached the Wimbledon final in 2010 beating Federer and Djokovic before losing to Nadal. He is the most consistent player outside the Big Four and he can cause trouble on grass with his big serve and huge ground-strokes. But, Berdych has found it very tough against the Big Four in recent years.
Nishikori reached his 1st GS final at US Open 2014 beating Raonic, Wawrinka and Djokovic, before running out of gas against Cilic. 2015 held great prospects for Nishikori but he has yet to make an impact this year. However, Nishikori moves well on every surface and has the ground strokes to match anybody. His only area of concern will be his serve.
In light of all these factors and the tournament’s history, an upset champion is highly unlikely. Anybody who says otherwise is kidding themselves. The future of the top spots in tennis is also still a huge question.
A final piece of Tennis wisdom: “If you’re a gambling man, Don’t bet against the Big Four“